11 Top Undercut
The mural of quarterbacks in the NFL has confused seismically in the accomplished four years alone. With the accession of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, and Carson Wentz, the new accept already amorphous the action of barter the old. No best is Tom Brady the best quarterback in football. No best is Aaron Rodgers the best physically able quarterback in the NFL. No best is Matt Ryan a top-10 quarterback.
The 2020 NFL division is still a few months abroad (hopefully), but that doesn’t beggarly it’s too aboriginal to rank the top-10 quarterbacks for the accessible season. Below, you’ll acquisition absolutely that.
To no one’s surprise, Mahomes is aloft the rankings. Nobody should be afraid by the quarterback positioned anon abaft Mahomes because he — Lamar Jackson — is the ascendant MVP and all (don’t @ me about his playoff record). It additionally shouldn’t appear as a abruptness to see Russell Wilson in the third position.
But what’s best notable about the rankings is the absence of a few earlier quarterbacks who are on Hall of Fame trajectories. I’m talking mostly about Aaron Rodgers, an best abundant quarterback who I would — if I had the adeptness to do so — vote into Canton during his aboriginal year of eligibility. I’ve continued said that Rodgers is the best accomplished quarterback I’ve anytime apparent comedy with my own two eyes, which remained accurate appropriate up until the moment Mahomes took over for Alex Smith in Kansas City. Rodgers is one of the greatest quarterbacks I’ll anytime get to watch. But I larboard him off the account because, as declared above, we’re attractive advanced to the 2020 division and, well, Rodgers has already started his decline. In 2019, Rodgers threw for 4,002 yards, 26 touchdowns, and alone four interceptions, but he averaged alone 7.0 yards per attempt, and ranked 13th in DVOA, which measures amount per play, and 20th in absolute QBR. The accuracy of the amount is, Rodgers hasn’t been operating at his aiguille for a few seasons now. We haven’t apparent him at his best aback 2016. Add in the Packers’ abominable offseason, aback they banned to accord him the reinforcements he needs, and well, that’s how you wind up with a top-10 quarterback account afterwards Rodgers. I still anticipate he’s a acceptable quarterback, aloof not the abundant quarterback he already was.
Other quarterbacks, besides Rodgers, who aloof absent the cut include: Kirk Cousins (arguably the second-best quarterback in the NFC North), Matt Ryan (a approaching Hall of Famer who is boring declining), Kyler Murray (who has a adventitious to be a top-10 quarterback afterwards the Cardinals’ alarming offseason, but needs to booty a big footfall advanced in Year 2 to do so), and Jimmy Garoppolo (which says added about Kyle Shanahan).
Without added delay, our account of the top-10 quarterbacks for the 2020 season.
We’ve all apparent the beard. We’ve all heard about his offseason regimen. We all apperceive he’s advancing off major elbow surgery. We’re all acquainted that he’s 38 years old. These are all red flags. They’re all affidavit for concern.
But the aftermost time we got a allusive glimpse of Big Ben aback during the 2018 season, he was still the Big Ben we’ve all appear to apperceive over the accomplished 15 years. Two seasons ago, Roethlisberger completed 67 percent of his passes for 5,129 yards (7.6 yards per attempt), 34 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and a 96.5 passer rating. He ranked eighth in DVOA and fourth in absolute QBR.
Assuming he makes it through the 2020 division unscathed, it’ll be his aboriginal abounding division in a while afterwards Antonio Brown. Admitting Brown’s absence, Big Ben is still well-equipped to be a top-10 quarterback afresh in 2020. JuJu Smith-Schuster, who alike afterwards his black 2019 division with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, is averaging 965 yards and 5.7 touchdowns per season, is still there. So is Diontae Johnson, who bankrupt out with 59 catches, 680 yards, and bristles touchdowns aftermost year, and James Washington, who racked up a career-high 735 yards aftermost season. Meanwhile, the aggregation did able-bodied to add Eric Ebron in chargeless agency. Alike afterwards Brown, Big Ben will still be throwing to a accomplished accumulating of canyon catchers. Perhaps best importantly, he’ll be throwing abaft a dependable abhorrent line.
All of this is set up for Big Ben to accost his abode in the NFL as a top-10 quarterback. But apropos still abide — namely, his bend and age — which is why he’s ranked 10th on a account of 10.
Like with Big Ben, there are affluence of affidavit to be anxious with Brady’s angle in 2020. For one, he’ll be 43 aback the new division bliss off. Two, he’s already apparent signs of crumbling afterwards a 2019 division that saw him bandy for 4,057 yards (his everyman absolute aback his 2016 Deflategate abeyance season), 24 touchdowns (his everyman absolute aback his 2008 broken ACL season), eight interceptions, and an 88.0 passer appraisement (his everyman appraisement aback 2013). By both DVOA and absolute QBR, he graded out as an boilerplate quarterback, ranking 17th.
But Brady snuck his way assimilate the account because he’s no best in New England on an breach bare of playmakers. In Tampa Bay, he gets to assignment with Bruce Arians while throwing to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate, arguably the centermost and best accepting accumulation of Brady’s absolute career. That’s why I’m bulging a bounce-back division for Brady. Clashing Rodgers, Brady is now accepting the advice he needs in the afterwards stages of his career.
Wentz can absolutely chronicle to Brady’s plight in 2019. Like Brady, Wentz didn’t get abundant help. At one point, afterwards the Eagles’ accepting band was decimated by injury, Wentz was throwing to receivers like Greg Ward and Mack Hollins. The team’s arch advanced receiver, Alshon Jeffery, absent six abounding amateur and accomplished with 490 yards. The team’s top-two arch canyon catchers were bound ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. The acceptable account is that admitting those adverse circumstances, Wentz still managed to complete 63.9 percent of his passes for 4,039 yards (an alarmingly low 6.7 yards per attempt), 27 touchdowns, seven picks, and a 93.1 passer rating. He accomplished the division 20th in DVOA, but 11th in absolute QBR.
So yes, Wentz needs to drag his akin of comedy if he’s activity to be the eighth-best quarterback in 2020. Luckily, the Eagles had the abstract we all anticipation the Packers would have. Alike admitting they drafted a quarterback in Jalen Hurts, they alone did so afterwards giving Wentz some actual abatement in the anatomy of advanced receiver Jalen Reagor. Furthermore, they added added acceleration to their pass-catching accumulation by trading for Marquise Goodwin. Not to mention, both advantageous bound ends are still around.
If the Eagles can break advantageous at the accomplishment positions, Wentz will accept a amazing adventitious to become a top-10 quarterback in 2020.
It continues to fly beneath the alarm that Stafford was on clip to bandy for 4,998 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 2019 afore an abrasion concluded his division afterwards eight games. At the time of his injury, Stafford ranked additional in touchdown passes, fourth in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, third in DYAR, fifth in DVOA, and seventh in absolute QBR. Freed from the constraints of the Jim Bob Cooter abhorrent arrangement that focused added on abbreviate passes and arena in a Darrell Bevell arrangement that accustomed him to use his arm aptitude to bandy downfield, Stafford thrived.
As I wrote at the time:
What’s afflicted is that the Lions replaced Jim Bob Cooter with Darrell Bevell at abhorrent coordinator and Bevell has accustomed Stafford to use his arm aptitude to bandy the brawl downfield with frequency. Cooter approved to absolute the mistakes that Stafford has a addiction of authoritative by banishment him to get the brawl out bound to beneath receivers — at the beginning, it absolutely seemed like a acceptable idea. In 2016, Stafford averaged 8 air yards per attempt, which was the league’s eighth-lowest average. In 2017, he additionally averaged 8 air yards per attempt. In 2018, he averaged 7 air yards per attempt, which was the league’s sixth-lowest average. This year, beneath Bevell, Stafford is averaging 10.7 air yards per attempt. Alone Jameis Winston ranks advanced of him. As a result, he’s averaging 8.6 yards per attack afterwards averaging 7.1 yards per attack during the aboriginal decade of his career. It turns out, absolution Stafford use his God-given arm backbone is absolutely a acceptable idea.
With Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones still around, and T.J. Hockenson entering Year 2, Stafford is assertive to aces up area he larboard off. Assuming he can break advantageous this time around, Stafford has a accepted adventitious to put calm the best division of his career. He’s never been bigger able to do so.
That’s why he’s ranked seventh on a account that doesn’t accommodate Aaron Rodgers. I anticipate he’s activity to be the best quarterback in the NFC North in 2020.
It doesn’t advice affairs that Watson is saddled with Bill O’Brien as his accepted manager, who jettisoned DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for an overpaid and bootless active back. But if there’s one affair Watson has consistently accurate aback entering the NFL in 2017, it’s that he’s able of advantageous beneath than ideal circumstances.
As a rookie, arena abaft a bad abhorrent line, he led the Texans to a 3-3 almanac as a starting quarterback; they went 1-9 afterwards him. In his aboriginal abounding division as a starting quarterback, he operated abaft the league’s affliction abhorrent line, accepting sacked 62 times, but additionally commutual 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,165 yards (8.2 YPA), 26 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a 103.1 passer appraisement — not to acknowledgment his 551 yards and bristles array as a runner. He did it afresh aftermost year in a 15-game division with a 67.3 achievement percentage, 3,852 casual yards, 26 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, a 98.0 passer rating, 413 hasty yards, and seven touchdown runs.
So, alike admitting he’ll be afterwards Hopkins, I accept acceptance he’ll be able to already afresh accomplish like a top-10 amateur at his position group. There’s no agnosticism he’ll absence Hopkins, but a accepting accumulation composed of Kenny Stills, Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, and Brandin Cooks can still be able — decidedly downfield. Aloft all else, I assurance Watson to drag the aggregation about him. It’s aloof what he consistently does.
The Cowboys’ abnegation to accord Dak Prescott the arrangement he wants and deserves continues to accomplish no sense. They accept a 26-year-old authorization quarterback they were advantageous abundant to abstract in the fourth annular four years ago and for some impaired reason, they haven’t accustomed him a abiding contract. And let’s be clear: Dak deserves it.
In four seasons, Prescott is commutual 65.8 percent of his passes, and averaging 3,944.5 casual yards per season, 7.6 yards per attempt, and 24.3 touchdown passes and nine interceptions per season. He’s accumulated a 97.0 passer rating. He’s additionally averaging 305.3 hasty yards and 5.3 hasty touchdowns per season. Aback 2016, he ranks sixth in casual yards, angry for ninth in touchdown passes, and angry (with Russell Wilson) for additional in quarterback wins (only Brady has more). He’s advancing off a division that saw him accomplishment sixth in DVOA and fourth in absolute QBR.
So, it’s not bizarre to anticipate Prescott will comedy like a top-10 quarterback in 2020. He’s mostly been arena at that akin over the accomplished four seasons. Now, in accession to Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, he gets to bandy to addition like CeeDee Lamb. I anticipate there’s a acceptable adventitious Prescott outplays his baronial on this list. He’s set up to thrive, which is why the Cowboys should assurance him afore the division begins and he drives up his allurement amount already afresh — aloof like how they should’ve active afore aftermost season, but I digress.
For as abundant absorption as Brady’s constancy has gotten, Brees is crumbling aloof as well. In his age-40 season, he completed a league-high 74.3 percent of his passes, averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, threw a touchdown on a career-high 7.1 percent of his passes and an interception on alone 1.1 percent of his passes, and generated a passer appraisement of 116.3, the best of his career. If not for a deride abrasion that amount him bristles starts, he would’ve been in the MVP altercation (again).
Returning for his 15th division in New Orleans, Brees is set up to aces up area he larboard off. The Saints already had one of the league’s best offenses and again they went out and active Emmanuel Sanders to bolster a accepting accumulation led by the abundant Michael Thomas. The abhorrent band — already one of the league’s best — added first-round aces Cesar Ruiz to the interior. Unless Brees assuredly feels the affects of aging, he should abide one of the league’s best quarterbacks (and the best quarterback in the NFC South alike afterwards Brady’s arrival).
No quarterback consistently does added with beneath than Wilson. If he had the account of arena for, say, Andy Reid in Kansas City, he’d apparently acquisition himself aloft this list. Instead, he charcoal in Seattle with Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer, who assume hellbent on #EstablishingTheRun, abundant to Wilson’s detriment. That said, Wilson consistently makes it work. At this point in his career, he’s one of the three best quarterbacks (and the best deep-ball thrower) in football.
Let’s run through the numbers. Aback he entered the alliance aback in 2012, he’s never absent a game, he’s won 86 amateur (only Brady has won added in that span), and he’s befuddled for the seventh-most yards and the fifth-most touchdowns. Out of all quarterbacks aback 2012, alone Cam Newton has rushed for added yards. Aback 2017, he’s averaging 3,847 casual yards, 33.3 touchdown passes, and 7.7 interceptions per season. Aftermost year, he completed 66.1 percent of his passes for 4,110 yards (8.0 YPA), 31 touchdowns, alone bristles interceptions, and a 106.3 passer rating. If not for Lamar Jackson’s historically abundant season, he would’ve won MVP. There’s a acumen the Seahawks went 11-5 admitting outscoring their action by alone seven credibility over the advance of the season. Wilson animated them.
The alarming affair is, Wilson is bigger able to do alike added accident in 2020 than he did in 2019. D.K. Metcalf, afterwards authoritative a able consequence with 900 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie, should be bigger in Year 2. Tyler Lockett should be healthy. Newcomer Phillip Dorsett is absolutely an arresting fit. Greg Olsen was a nice upside signing.
But aloft all else, it comes bottomward to Wilson’s consistency. He’s about consistently one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Don’t apprehend that to change out of nowhere.
What a aboriginal abounding division as a starting quarterback it was for Jackson, who emerged with a well-deserved MVP bays afterwards arch the Ravens to the top berry in the AFC. There’s no agnosticism that Jackson, clashing Wilson, was set up to advance with an avant-garde apprenticeship agents that catered the breach to his different skillset and a top-five defense, but there’s additionally no agnosticism that the all-inclusive majority of the Ravens’ success came bottomward to Jackson. In 15 games, he went 13-2 while commutual 66.1 percent of his passes, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, arch the alliance in touchdown passes with 36 admitting attempting alone 401 passes (26th), throwing six interceptions, and announcement a 113.3 passer rating. And oh yeah, he bankrupt the single-season hasty almanac for a quarterback with 1,206 yards (and seven scores). There’s aloof not addition quarterback like him in the NFL appropriate now — maybe ever.
While some accept posited that Jackson could attempt abutting division now that teams accept blur on the Ravens’ offense, I angular the added way. I anticipate he ability still advance as a passer. This was Jackson’s aboriginal abounding division as an NFL starting quarterback in a new breach with adolescent targets about him. The receivers, like Hollywood Brown and Miles Boykin, should advance in Year 2. Jackson himself should abound added adequate in the offense. And abhorrent coordinator Greg Roman should abide to innovate the offense.
Don’t let one bad playoff bold abeyance you into cerebration the Ravens are a gimmick. Jackson is assertive to alarm the NFL for the abutting decade.
This shouldn’t appear as a surprise. It shouldn’t account any controversy. We should all accede by now that Mahomes is far and abroad the best amateur in football behindhand of position, and he aloof happens to comedy the best important position in all of sports.
Since acceptable the team’s full-time amateur at the alpha of the 2018 season, he is averaging 4,564 yards, 38 touchdowns, and alone 8.5 interceptions per division — alike admitting he’s absent about three amateur in that span. He won MVP in his aboriginal division as a amateur by acceptable the additional quarterback in NFL history to bandy for 5,000-plus yards and 50-plus touchdowns in a distinct season. He followed that up by arch the Chiefs to a championship in 2019, abatement a 24-point arrears in the amount of a distinct division to bang off the team’s playoff run with a 20-point win over the Texans and eventually abatement a 10-point arrears in the fourth division of the Super Bowl adjoin an aristocratic defense. Sure, his numbers in the approved division regressed afterwards his record-setting 2018 season, but accumulate in apperception that from 2018 to 2019, he cut his interception amount in bisected (from 2.1 percent to 1.0 percent). Including the playoffs, Mahomes now owns a college acceptable allotment than Tom Brady.
If anyone has a adventitious to bound Brady as the greatest quarterback of all time, it’s Mahomes. There’s no acumen to anticipate he’s set to decline. If anything, like Jackson, I anticipate he’s activity to accumulate accepting better.
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